"..the average 5-day track error over the past five years of NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. With this in mind, the entire Southeast U.S. coast—especially from South Florida to South Carolina—needs to stay abreast of Dorian's evolution..."
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dorian-Slams-Virgin-Islands-Likely-Approach-Florida-Major-Hurricane